As Delhi and several parts of northern India continue to face serious air pollution, a new satellite-based assessment has raised concerns about the actual number of stubble-burning incidents in Punjab and Haryana. An aerosol scientist associated with NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Centre has estimated that around 34,000 farm fires may have occurred across the two states between October 1 and November 9, 2026.
The estimate is considerably higher than the 4,459 farm-fire incidents recorded in the official figures cited in the report. The difference has brought attention to possible gaps in the way agricultural fires are detected and counted through satellite monitoring systems.
Dr Hiren Jethva, an aerosol remote sensing scientist associated with Morgan State University and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Centre, shared his assessment using satellite observations and an adjustment method to estimate the possible number of fires.
Satellite Data Shows a Significant Difference
According to Jethva’s assessment, two satellite instruments recorded thousands of fire detections during the October 1 to November 9 period.
Data from the NOAA-20 satellite’s Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), which has a resolution of 375 metres, detected 4,089 fires during its observation period around 1:30 pm local time.
Meanwhile, the Aqua satellite’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), which has a resolution of approximately one kilometre, recorded 4,196 fire detections around 4 pm local time.
However, Jethva suggested that these raw satellite observations may not represent the complete picture. After applying an empirical adjustment to the VIIRS 375-metre fire-count baseline, his calculation increased the estimated total to approximately 34,000 fires.
He described this figure as a conservative estimate.
Why Could Satellite Systems Be Missing Farm Fires?
One of the major concerns highlighted by the assessment is the timing of satellite observations.
Satellite instruments detect active fires when they pass over a particular region. However, agricultural burning does not necessarily take place at the same time every day.
According to the explanation accompanying the assessment, farmers have gradually shifted the timing of stubble burning. This could mean that some fires are not active during the limited observation windows of satellites traditionally used for official monitoring.
As a result, fires occurring outside satellite observation periods may not appear in the recorded count.
Satellite resolution is another important factor. Different instruments have different capabilities to identify smaller or less intense fire activity. Therefore, the number of detections can vary depending on the satellite, observation time and monitoring method.
The difference between raw satellite detections and an adjusted estimate is important. The figure of 34,000 should not be treated as a direct count of independently verified fires. It is an estimate based on an adjustment method.
Stubble Burning and North India’s Air Pollution
However, burning agricultural waste releases smoke, fine particulate matter and other pollutants into the atmosphere. These emissions can contribute to worsening air quality, particularly during the winter months.
The problem becomes more serious when smoke from agricultural fires combines with vehicle emissions, industrial pollution, construction dust and other sources.
Weather conditions also play an important role. Low wind speeds, cooler temperatures and atmospheric conditions that prevent pollutants from dispersing can cause pollution to remain close to the ground.
Delhi and neighbouring areas frequently experience deteriorating air quality during this period.
Why Accurate Fire Monitoring Matters
The difference between the official count and the scientist’s estimate raises an important question about how effectively agricultural fires are being monitored.
Accurate data is necessary for governments to assess the scale of stubble burning, evaluate prevention programmes and identify areas that need additional support.
More frequent satellite observations, improved detection methods and ground-level verification could help build a clearer picture of agricultural fire activity.
The estimate does not establish that every reported fire was missed by official agencies. However, it highlights the need to examine whether existing monitoring systems are capturing the full scale of seasonal burning.
As northern India enters another winter pollution season, reliable information about farm fires will remain important for understanding the region’s air-quality challenges and planning effective measures.
